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Blanchard Consultancy - News

House tax holiday: would it work - and can the government afford it?

Monday, August 18, 2008

In the past decade, home buyers have paid the government £32bn in stamp duty, with the annual amount rising dramatically as the housing market soared and increasing numbers of properties were caught by the tax.

According to the Halifax, just over a quarter of the privately-owned homes in the UK, more than 5.5m, were valued above £250,000 at the end of last year, the threshold at which stamp duty is levied at 3% of the property's value. In 2002, there were just 1.8m properties valued above £250,000.

A family buying the average-priced home in Greater London, currently £291,500, would pay the Treasury £8,745 in tax.

The government has enjoyed a large increase in revenue from stamp duty since Labour came to power in 1997. That year, the yield from residential properties was just £675m. Increases in the rate of tax combined with the impact of rising house prices meant the Treasury collected £6.4bn from stamp duty on homes last year. However, that figure will fall dramatically this year as the housing market has hit a wall and the number of transactions has plummeted to record lows.

Under the current regime, there are four stamp duty bands. Buyers of homes worth less than £125,000 pay nothing. Between £125,000 and £250,000, buyers pay 1% on the price of the home; between £250,000 and £500,000, buyers pay 3% of the price; and above £500,000, they pay 4%. There were 1m properties in the UK valued at more than £500,000 at the end of last year, a threefold increase in the past five years, according to the Halifax.

Consumer groups, mortgage lenders and house builders have lobbied for the lifting of the current thresholds to keep them in line with rising house prices, and those calls have become louder as the housing market has been paralysed by the credit crunch. First-time buyers are under particular pressure as the banks' lending criteria have become tougher and they are being forced to find much larger deposits.

If the higher stamp duty thresholds of £250,000 and £500,000 had increased in line with house price inflation since July 1997 when they were introduced, they would now stand at £720,000 and £1.44m, the Halifax said.

Read more at Guardian Economics

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UK faces negative equity crisis

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Britain is on course for a re-run of the negative equity crisis of the early 1990s, with one in seven UK homeowners facing the prospect of having a property worth less than their mortgage, the ratings agency Standard & Poor's said today.

The company predicted that house prices would tumble by a further 17% over the next year, prompting a rise from 70,000 to 1.7m households in negative equity - the same as at the depth of the housing-market meltdown of the early 1990s.

Andrew South, a credit analyst at S&P, said: "The downward trend in UK house prices now seems well established, and we expect prices to continue falling in the near term".

House prices have been falling at their fastest rate on record in recent months, but the previous boom in property values means that only a fraction of Britain's home-owners - 0.6% - are currently in negative equity. The average UK mortgage is for 54% of the value of the home.

S&P warned, however, that for every further percentage point fall in house prices, a further 0.5%-1.5% of borrowers (between 60,000 and 180,000) could enter negative equity. Noting that the trough in the cycle would not be reached until 2009, S&P said: "At this point, we expect 1.7 million borrowers - around 14% - would be in negative equity."

The company said borrowers in the buy-to-let and sub-prime sectors were most at risk from negative equity. "A further 17% decline in house prices could put around 24% of noncomforming borrowers into negative equity, compared with only 13% of prime borrowers."

Read the full article at Guardian Property news

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