Blanchard Consultancy – the independent construction consultant

A UK recession could leave up to 1.3 million households in negative equity, analysts predicted yesterday. House prices will fall by 25-35 per cent from peak to trough, compared with just 12 per cent from 1990 to 1995, the Bernstein analysts said. In the "recession case" of a 35 per cent drop, 1.3 million households, or nearly 20 per cent of mortgages, would be in negative equity and banks would lose £38bn over several years, they added.

A slowdown that sees growth of 0.5 per cent next year would result in 400,000 households suffering negative equity. The effect of the far bigger than expected fall in house prices would be offset by lower loan-to-value ratios, less activity near the peak of the market, and higher repayment rates than in the last crash.

On Thursday, Halifax's parent HBOS reported property prices down 12.7 per cent in August from a year earlier. Bernstein said the UK housing market now had strong downward momentum, with mortgage approvals collapsing, estate agents unable to shift stock and industry sentiment gloomy. "With house prices down 12 per cent so far this year on the HBOS index, and significant further falls expected, the fear of negative equity is again stalking the land," the analysts wrote.

Read the full article at The Independent Online

Labels: global recession, Halifax, Housing market, HSBOS, property analysis, property prices, uk housing

Property bargains are increasing daily as sellers cut their asking prices in an attempt to make wary buyers commit in a slow summer market – but the mortgage drought and a loss of confidence among buyers means that few are taking advantage.

Sellers are asking £5,403 less for their homes than a month ago, with the typical price of a house down, on average, by 2.3 per cent at £229,816, according to a survey on Rightmove, the property search website.

In London, where the market has deteriorated sharply, asking prices have dropped by £21,096, or 5.3 per cent, to an average £379,162 in a month. Prices are down 3.8 per cent in the capital over the past year, compared with 4.8 per cent across the UK.

Despite such reductions, properties appear to be more difficult to sell, with Rightmove-registered agents reporting 78 unsold properties on their books, up from 77 last month. Miles Shipside, a director of Rightmove, said: “Buyers are currently benefiting from the best choice in years.”

Rightmove blames the mortgage drought for the state of the market, adding that transactions are in danger of dropping to levels last seen in 1959.

Despite fears that there could be a surge of properties put on the market as the slumping economy and soaring prices forced more borrowers into difficulties with their mortgages and pushed asking prices even lower, Rightmove says that there is no sign yet of a rush of homes for sale. New listings are 106,000, about 25 per cent lower than typically seen at this time of year. Mr Shipside said: “Those who do not have to sell are holding off.”

Read the full article at Times Online.

Labels: falling house prices, findaproperty, House market, property analysis, property prices, Rightmove, uk housing

In the past decade, home buyers have paid the government £32bn in stamp duty, with the annual amount rising dramatically as the housing market soared and increasing numbers of properties were caught by the tax.

According to the Halifax, just over a quarter of the privately-owned homes in the UK, more than 5.5m, were valued above £250,000 at the end of last year, the threshold at which stamp duty is levied at 3% of the property's value. In 2002, there were just 1.8m properties valued above £250,000.

A family buying the average-priced home in Greater London, currently £291,500, would pay the Treasury £8,745 in tax.

The government has enjoyed a large increase in revenue from stamp duty since Labour came to power in 1997. That year, the yield from residential properties was just £675m. Increases in the rate of tax combined with the impact of rising house prices meant the Treasury collected £6.4bn from stamp duty on homes last year. However, that figure will fall dramatically this year as the housing market has hit a wall and the number of transactions has plummeted to record lows.

Under the current regime, there are four stamp duty bands. Buyers of homes worth less than £125,000 pay nothing. Between £125,000 and £250,000, buyers pay 1% on the price of the home; between £250,000 and £500,000, buyers pay 3% of the price; and above £500,000, they pay 4%. There were 1m properties in the UK valued at more than £500,000 at the end of last year, a threefold increase in the past five years, according to the Halifax.

Consumer groups, mortgage lenders and house builders have lobbied for the lifting of the current thresholds to keep them in line with rising house prices, and those calls have become louder as the housing market has been paralysed by the credit crunch. First-time buyers are under particular pressure as the banks' lending criteria have become tougher and they are being forced to find much larger deposits.

If the higher stamp duty thresholds of £250,000 and £500,000 had increased in line with house price inflation since July 1997 when they were introduced, they would now stand at £720,000 and £1.44m, the Halifax said.

Read more at Guardian Economics

Labels: Alistair Darling, Bank of England, credit crunch, Gordon Brown, Halifax, House Tax, Mortgage rates, negative equity crisis, property analysis, Stamp duty changes, uk housing

The high-street bank HBOS must inject about £100m of fresh cash into Crest Nicholson in the coming weeks to prevent the housebuilder from breaching banking covenants.

If HBOS, which owns 50% of Crest Nicholson, decides that it is unwilling to support the builder, its investment could be wiped out and the lending banks could step in and take control.

HBOS is also understood to be contemplating bringing in a partner to provide the funding. Hedge funds and private-equity groups are thought to be interested. HBOS has hired debt specialists at Deloitte to assist with the negotiations.

Crest Nicholson, led by chief executive Stephen Stone, was bought in 2007 at the height of the housing boom by Uberior Investments, the private-equity arm of HBOS, and West Coast Capital, the private-equity vehicle of the Scottish retail tycoon Sir Tom Hunter. Their joint venture valued the business at £715m. Hunter is the richest man in Scotland, according to the Sunday Times Rich List.

Article continues at Times Online

Labels: Crest Nicholson, Deloitte, House market, Housebuilders, HSBOS, property analysis

The chancellor, Alistair Darling, is prepared to disappoint millions of would-be home buyers by ruling out proposals to revive the housing market, Treasury insiders warned last night. After a chaotic week of claim and counter-claim about Treasury plans to suspend stamp duty for first-time buyers, Darling has hardened his stance against the move, which he believes could cost billions to little positive effect.

Senior officials said the Chancellor might well take no action to prop up the market in the Pre-Budget Report this autumn. 'Alistair is not going to be buffeted into doing something by headlines,' said one insider. 'If the evidence is there that suspending stamp duty would help, then we will look at it. But at the moment the evidence is not there.'

Although work is under way on a range of options involving possible changes to stamp duty and other measures to help buyers, there is deep scepticism about the idea in the Treasury.

Read more at Guardian Online

Labels: Alistair Darling, chancellor, House market, property analysis, property prices, Stamp duty changes

The housing market could define Gordon Brown's leadership more than any other area of policy. Tony Blair promised education would be his priority; Mr Brown's slogan was not quite "housing, housing, housing" (he preferred some clever-clever guff about "passions" and "priorities") but at the outset he promised 3m new homes by 2020, that environmentally friendly eco-towns would be built, and that the planning system would be streamlined so all this could happen. No doubt about it: he would be the housing prime minister.

All those hopes are now so much dust, thanks to the credit crunch. Housebuilders are either going bust or downing tools, while mortgage lenders are barely lending. Mortgage approvals are down 70% from this time a year ago, according to a report yesterday - which will surely be reflected in sliding house prices over the next few months.

This is bad news for the housing prime minister; but it is terrible for the economy, whose strength he has boasted about so much. That the home-owning British feel wealthier when their houses go up in value may be regrettable, but it is also true. The housing downturn can already be felt on the high street - as it worsens it will keep sending shockwaves through the UK's lopsided economy. A drop in house prices and a calmer mortgage market are vital, as even ministers agree; but a headlong fall in prices and a near-shutdown of the mortgage supply naturally worries policymakers.

The government's interim report on the mortgage industry, published yesterday, is part of Mr Brown's attempt to thaw out the housing market. No other party has tried to tackle the problems in the mortgage market head on. The Lib Dems' Vince Cable is the patron saint of financial re-regulation, but even his policies are a bit thin here. Yet on any list of pressing problems that politicians need to think about, the mortgage drought must rank very high.

Article continues at Guardian Comment is Free

Labels: Gordon Brown, Housing Minister, housing policies, property analysis, property prices, property trends, uk housing, uk mortgage market, US house prices, Vince Cable

Now that school is out and the sun is making an overdue appearance, a property buyer’s thoughts inevitably turn to holiday homes. And, whether because of rising air fares, carbon-footprint dilemmas or the strong euro, Britain is looking increasingly attractive. But where should you buy - and, given all the doom and gloom out there, is now the time to snap up a bargain?

The prices of large homes in traditional honeypots such as Salcombe, in south Devon, West Wittering, in West Sussex, and Southwold, in Suffolk, appear to be remaining steady despite these straitened times, because buyers don’t want to miss the chance to purchase property with direct sea access and the best views. “In these hot spots, houses don’t come up often, so they are holding their own,” says Michael Bedford, of Bedfords estate agency in Aldeburgh, Suffolk.

“People are increasingly looking to holiday in England – they say to themselves, ‘Petrol’s gone up 50p, so let’s buy a £500,000 house.’ ” Elsewhere, however, it is possible to pick up a bargain, as overstretched second-homers find their beachside pad is one luxury too many.

“At Garrington South West, we’ve seen an increase in supply in secondary holiday areas,” says Phil Spencer, the property-search expert and Sunday Times columnist. “While Salcombe is holding up well, more people are releasing property in cheaper locations nearby, such as Dart-mouth, that they perhaps shouldn’t have bought in the first place.”

Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, agrees: “Many of the prestige properties in top locations might not come on the market in two or three generations. Prices haven’t collapsed, as some predicted, but look to negotiate a bargain if you’re breaking into the market. Houses are likely to be cheaper than last year and cheaper than in two years’ time.”

When searching for your summer pad, make sure you aren’t buying it only for the roses around the door, Spencer advises. “Don’t buy a house just because it’s pretty. Summer holiday homes are all about ease. Make sure the house is within walking distance of shops and the beach, has access to parking and has a good view.”

Read the full article at Times Online

Labels: holiday homes, Knight Frank, property analysis, property prices, second homes, UK coastal property guide, uk housing

The Government is to benefit from the slump in the commercial property market, raking in £100m more than it expected from controversial changes to business rates.

The Government withdrew commercial property rate relief on empty buildings in April to encourage landlords not to leave buildings empty.

But rising vacancy levels in the sector mean landlords will have to pay millions of pounds more in rates on empty buildings than was forecast when the changes were introduced.

Figures from property agent NB Real Estate suggest that since the change in the law was first proposed, the number of vacant commercial buildings has jumped 15pc, resulting in a substantial increase in the rates payable on empty buildings.

Andrew Warde, director of rating at NB Real Estate, said: "This empty rates tax was conceived when the property market was performing strongly, but the downturn is heaping misery upon misery. The Government's belief that landlords keep buildings empty without good reason is just plain wrong and the blanket application of additional rates tax just doubles the pain."

Under the new legislation the 15pc increase in vacancy levels will result in landlords paying 15pc more business rates on their portfolio of empty buildings. For the Government this will result in a similar increase in its tax take on empty buildings. Original estimates ranged from £950m to £1.4bn.

Original article continues at Telegraph Business news

Labels: business rates change, commercial property rate relief, Housing market, NB real estate, property analysis, property development

Housebuilders ploughed on with their growth plans at the top of the market and now they're paying the price, finds Mark Leftly.

Once again, Tony Pidgley, the Barnardo's boy turned multimillionaire residential builder, is set to make a killing out of a property downturn. While his peers at Barratt and Taylor Wimpey were getting ready to announce mass redundancies and desperately trying to shore up their balance sheets in the worst housing crisis since the early 1990s, the 60-year-old chief executive of Berkeley announced two weeks ago that the company would spend £350m on cheap land.

Berkeley board members had noted a 25 per cent fall in land prices, so decided to go buying in a move that in effect calls the bottom of the market. Pidgley made the same call in 1991, making him something of a legend in the close-knit world of housebuilding. "By and large the reaction from our shareholders has been first class," says Mr Pidgley, with the biggest of smiles. "The vast majority of them trust the management."

Investors in housebuilding's "big three" – Taylor Wimpey, Barratt Developments and Persimmon – have been far less trusting: their share prices have all lost more than 80 per cent of their value in the past year.

For Mr Pidgley, the game is simple: a decade of uninterrupted growth should have meant that builders had enough cash stashed away for the fall that was bound to occur in such a cyclical industry.

"The City pushes for more and more – turnover growth, profit growth – and it rewards managers if they achieve that," sighs a source. "But the industry is not scaleable; housebuilding needs discipline."

Mark Clare and Peter Redfern, the chief executives of Barratt and Taylor Wimpey respectively, believed that the industry was scaleable – that it was ripe for consolidation. Last year Barratt bought rival Wilson Bowden for £2.2bn, while Taylor Woodrow and Wimpey merged, creating two FTSE 100 forces.

Former directors at Barratt were not convinced by the strategy; the company hadn't made a big acquisition in two decades. Last week their doubts only grew stronger as the company, burdened by £1.7bn of debt, announced 1,000 people would go from its 6,700-strong workforce.

Leslie Kent, a director and analyst at broker FinnCap, says Barratt's decision to buy Wilson Bowden at the top of the market has caused its current plight. "It paid 22 quid for every 11 quid of assets," he points out.

The falling values of those assets and the decline in house sales meant Barratt was in serious danger of breaching its banking covenants. However, a trading statement this week is expected to confirm that Mr Clare has managed to find £400m of fresh debt to help finance repayment of the Wilson Bowden acquisition. He should also announce that he has negotiated a relaxation of Barratt's covenants.

Taylor Wimpey's problems run even deeper. On Monday the board confirmed speculation it had changed the terms of its credit facility – on the condition it raised equity. By Wednesday this capital raising was in chaos when a trading statement reported that negotiations with investors had not led to "a satisfactory transaction". If the situation is not resolved, or house prices don't rise dramatically, Taylor Wimpey will next year find itself in breach of "one or more" of its banking covenants, the statement added.

"The Taylor Wimpey stuff is really scary," says a property banker who is also a veteran of the 1990s crash.

Mr Kent at FinnCap adds that Taylor Wimpey's woes have been exacerbated by the way in which the merger was completed. Under accounting rules, one party had to be viewed as the acquirer and Taylor Woodrow was accorded that honour, with the result that Wimpey's land bank was valued at 2007 prices. As this was the peak of the market, that value have since fallen heavily, hurting the balance sheet.

"Builders that haven't made big acquisitions will find their land revaluations will not be in the same order of magnitude," says Mr Kent, before hinting that this won't necessarily protect their share prices. "The stock market takes no prisoners; all housebuilders are tarred with the same brush."

Article continues at The Independent

Labels: Barratt Developments, Berkeley Group, FinnCap, House market, Housebuilders, property analysis, property prices, Taylor Wimpey, Taylor Woodrow, Tony Pigley, uk housing

Housing is back in demand in the US - especially when homes can cost only £10,000, writes James Quinn

Other than being home to cereal giant Kellogg's, the town of Battle Creek is little known outside the Michigan bible-belt in which it sits.

Set on the western side of the "Great Lakes State", the 53,000-person municipality appears to have seen better days. Take a look at the Battle Creek Enquirer. Squeezed between small-town stories about flash floods are bleak economic tales. The local school board has voted to lay off 17 teachers from the start of next term as it tries to find $1.5m (£760,000) in savings due to a string of budget cuts, and residents are complaining about the state of "crumbling roads".

This is just one town in a state which has been in recession for the past five years, where unemployment is running at 10pc, and which in March was ranked at number six in a nationwide state-by-state foreclosure league table.

But Battle Creek is different. Home sales here are rising.

In May, the town saw a 13pc increase in existing home sales - against a 2pc rise nationally.

Although local records have not yet been compiled for June, there is no suggestion sales have slowed.

Matt Davis, of Rosemary Davis Realtors in the town, said: "I think that people are finding fair and good deals that suit them. Maybe that's an indication that people have a bit more confidence."

Mr Davis, president of the local realtors' association, added: "A lot of the problem in the housing market is negative perception. People's psyche gets affected."

The sales numbers in Battle Creek show that people's psyche is beginning to turn, albeit spurred on by low prices. The number of low-end sales has doubled in the past year, with houses offered at a staggering sub-$20,000 (£10,000) being the most popular. One house price was so low the purchaser used a credit card to buy it.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, other towns experienced higher sales activity in May - the most recent month records are available for - including Sacramento and parts of the San Fernando Valley in California, and Sarasota in Florida.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, believes the US housing market might finally be healing: "There are early and tentative signs that a bottom may be forming in some housing markets."

Before the green shoots of recovery are able to sprout, however, the economic landscape must be fertile enough to encourage growth.

Story continues at The Telegraph online

Labels: Battle Creek, James Quinn, property analysis, US house prices

The UK Government must overhaul stamp duty land tax radically to create a fairer system for consumers, says RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors). Proposing a system that would benefit 99 percent of home buyers, RICS called on the Government to find a way of implementing the policy, which will provide a boost to the economy and the faltering housing market.

RICS proposes the abolition of the existing slab tax system*, replacing it with a two tier marginal tax system. No one will pay stamp duty on the first £150,000 of a house price. Above this value a 2.5 percent marginal rate would be charged on every pound up to £250,000, with a 5 percent marginal rate applying to every pound thereafter.

Everyone purchasing a home under £1 million will pay less stamp duty, benefiting 99 percent of all prospective homeowners. Currently, a buyer looking to purchase a £270,000 property will pay £8,100 in stamp duty. Under the RICS proposal they will now pay only £3,500, a saving of £4,600 making the property market more accessible, especially for those first time buyers struggling to pull together the funds needed to get on the property ladder.

With transaction levels plummeting first time buyers have been hardest hit seeing their home ownership dreams evaporate. With long-term house price rises outstripping wage inflation, food and fuel bills rising, and tighter lending criteria being applied by mortgage companies, the residential property market is becoming more inaccessible.

RICS Director of External Affairs, Gillian Charlesworth said:

“After having mortgages pulled from beneath their feet from lenders facing the full brunt of the credit crunch, consumers are looking to the Government for help. HM Treasury needs to find a way to implement this policy or, if they can’t do this imminently, to introduce a stamp duty holiday that will get the market moving.”


Initially the RICS proposal will reduce Government revenue by up to 24 percent, but given the 40 percent rise in stamp duty revenue in recent years (up from £4.6 billion in 2005/06 to £6.45 billion in 2006/07) there is room for the Government to manoeuvre.

The RICS proposal for Stamp duty land tax

• Slab tax system reformed to a two tier marginal tax system that reduces barriers to vast majority of homebuyers moving onto or through the market
• No-one pays SDLT on first £150,000 of home purchase
• 2.5 percent marginal rate on the value of homes between £150,000 and £250,000
• 5 percent marginal rate on the value of homes over £250,000
• The thresholds for stamp duty rates should then be annually indexed, reflecting house price growth and inflation
• Everyone purchasing a home up to £1million would pay less stamp duty
• Purchasers of the most expensive homes would pay more stamp duty. However, the increases are relatively minimal – the SDLT bill on a £1.5m home would only be 8% higher in total (£5,000 extra).
• Government would initially lose up to 24 percent of revenue.

Read more at the RICS newsroom

Labels: House market, land tax, property analysis, RCIS, Stamp duty changes, uk housing

The former BBC economics editor Evan Davis said yesterday that journalists could have done more to warn the public about the credit crunch that triggered the current housing price crash and general financial turmoil.

Davis, now a presenter on BBC Radio 4's Today, said the media may have helped to drive up the market by over-reporting statistics on rising house prices in the runup to the credit crunch crisis.

"I do ask whether we did our best to warn people of impending problems during the upswing of the [economic] cycle," Davis said at the Radio Festival in Glasgow yesterday.

"My line is, 'My God, we tried', but when everything is going well people don't want to hear it. We suffered from giving warnings a bit too early in the whole cycle.

"If, like me, you were saying in 2002-03, 'Remember folks, house prices can go down as well as up', by 2005 that warning was beginning to lose a bit of credibility," he added.

"We did warn them but didn't warn sufficiently loudly or clearly, and might have warned a little too early."

Davis, who was interviewed by his BBC colleague Jeremy Vine in Glasgow, said the media may also have helped inflate the market by reporting on every new house price survey - even when several of them were coming out in the same week.

"There was a period when online - not just online and not just the BBC - when house price stories were very interesting," he added.

"If you report the same thing five times then it sounds like they are going up even more. We in the end drive these things up just as the media did in the dotcom boom."

Read more in Guardian Housing news

Labels: Evan Davis, House market, property analysis, property boom, property prices, uk housing

There is now a very real chance that Taylor Wimpey, the UK's largest housebuilder by production, could become the first builder to fall victim to the credit crunch.

Created from a merger of Taylor Woodrow and Wimpey just a year ago, the company has stolen the dubious mantel of housebuilder most likely to collapse from Barratt Developments, after it revealed today that it had failed to secure between £400 million and £500 million of new funds from investors.

In theory, Taylor Wimpey has plenty of time to sort out its balance sheet, as it is not in danger of breaching covenants on its £1.7 billion debt until February. In the meantime, short-term cash flow is good and the company has taken tough measures to make sure it stays that way by closing a third of its offices and almost a fifth of its staff.

Full Story at Times Online

Labels: Barratt Developments, Housebuilders, property analysis, property development, Residential property, Taylor Wimpey

The scale of the problems facing the building industry was underlined yesterday when new figures showed British construction activity fell at its fastest rate in 11 years in June.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's construction PMI index fell for the fourth straight month to 38.8 from 43.9 in May - the weakest reading since the survey began in 1997. The housing sub-index was also the lowest ever, falling to 25.6 in June from 32.7. A score below 50 indicates a contraction.

"Housing bore the brunt of the credit crunch fallout, reflecting the steep decline in new housebuilding," said Roy Ayliffe of CIPS.

Housing minister Caroline Flint, who will publish a package of rescue measures this month, is trying to salvage the government's commitment to build 3m homes by 2020.

She said reforms would allow the Housing Corporation to pay 80% upfront to developers, rather than the current 50%, before work starts on housing projects. This would enable the corporation - a government agency overseeing social housing projects - to increase the pace of approvals and deliver much-needed affordable housing while supporting developers.

She said a national clearing house was being set up so housebuilders could approach the corporation with proposals to sell their unsold stock for affordable housing. The government has committed £200m for the purchase of unsold stock from housebuilders, which could then be used for social or affordable housing. The clearing house would give developers an indication of their chances of the social housing sector buying the unbuilt property.

She also said a further £270m from existing budgets would allow the corporation to provide an extra 3,800 homes for social rent and 1,500 shared ownership homes over the next three years.

Flint hopes the measures will prepare the industry for an upturn in a year or two year's time, as well as enabling councils to use their resources to keep the housebuilding programme going. The government's advisers - the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit - warned at its annual conference that even if house prices fell by 5% to 10%, there would still be an affordability crisis.

The government's targets for housebuilding have been fiercely criticised by regional assemblies for their lack of realism. For example, 49,700 new homes a year are proposed for the south-east compared with 28,900 planned.

But Flint said: "There is an overwhelming case for building more housing and we must remain as ambitious as possible. But ... we have to acknowledge not only the difficulties faced by individuals and families, but by housebuilders too."

A spokesperson for Shelter said: "This package gives the building industry a much needed kick-start."

Read more at Guardian Business

Labels: Housebuilders, property analysis, property development, property prices, Residential property, uk housing

Land and property developer switches focus to sites offering a mix of housing and commercial premises.

MacDonald Estates, the land and property developer, is predicting further growth this year despite tough market conditions after posting a profit of £5.1m for 2007.

The figure is an increase of 14.1% on the previous year and the ninth consecutive year of profit growth for Macdonald, started by entrepreneur Dan Macdonald in 1998.

But the Edinburgh-based company is planning to shift its long-term focus from purely commercial developments to building strategic new “mini-towns” including a 330-acre site it has identified in central Scotland. Other sites include Inverness and St Andrews.

Macdonald, chief executive of Macdonald Estates, said that by 2012, its focus will be almost exclusively fixed on community developments, with local power generation, sustainability and infrastructure as well as commercial premises.

“I am confident we will see the continuation of further profit growth through to 2009 as a number of our developments reach maturity,” he said.

The first site to be developed is a 260-acre site at Balloch Farm, Inverness, with a mix of housing and commercial. All the sites Macdonald has identified are in areas which are likely to be rezoned. Balloch is up for zoning in 2011.

“These new settlements are going to be the focus of the business and will allow us to use the expertise we have built in working with planners from the outset rather than just slapping an application in for consideration,” said Macdonald.

“Some will have gestation periods of 10-20 years although others might come through more quickly.

“These are not the eco-towns that Gordon Brown talked about but smaller mixed developments in areas where there is demand.”

Some of the other future developments for the company include a planned £100m hotel and office development at the SECC Glasgow and construction work on a £30m development at Falkirk Gateway, which starts later this year.

Macdonald also has plans to open an office in Dublin, furthering a commitment to business in the Irish republic. Plans are about to be submitted for a ¤40m (£31m) retail park at Portlaoise, an hour’s drive southwest of Dublin.

Macdonald appointed former Scottish Enterprise Fife chief executive Joe Noble as director of strategic development and infrastructure for the company last month.

Macdonald said: “I am in no doubt that we will see recessionary times and hear more accounts of bank write-offs, a further slide in capital values, greater inflation, raised debt, high bank charges, fire sales and a restrictive residential market.

“We should not delude ourselves. The Scottish market will be affected to a great extent.”

Original story here.

Labels: Dan Mcdonald, Macdonald estates, property analysis, property development, property prices, Scottish property market